CS2 Case Odds: How It Works, Examples and Advice
It may seem that opening a case with Counter-Strike items is magic. You press the button, and Lord Gaben himself decides whether to bless you with Dragon Lore or just give a common skin. Nope, this is not how it works! There is a clear mathematical mechanism of CS2 case odds. A lot here depends on your luck — which also means that nothing can really affect what item you get.
The probability of dropping rare skins (and actually any skin in a case) is predetermined. Knowing it may give you a general understanding of what to expect from every Counter-Strike case.
Before we start, let us make it clear — there is no practical difference between CS:GO cases and CS2 cases. All weapon finishes and containers have been fully transferred from the previous game version. Skins may look better in the game, as improved visuals is one of the main CS2 features. Beyond that, any case released for CS:GO can be opened in CS2.
We anticipate some new Counter-Strike 2 cases coming to the game. They will follow the same patterns of CS2 odds.
What Are CS2 Odds?
Let’s not beat around the bush. CS2 case odds are percentages of chances on getting skins/items of different rarity.
To get more info on what rarity levels are in Counter-Strike (both CS:GO and CS2), check out this skins quality guide on DMarket Blog. CS2 cases don’t include skins of the two lowest levels of rarity, Common and Uncommon. This is good news, as you don’t want to get them after spending money on a case key.
Most cases contain CS2 skins of five rarity levels. CS2 odds are the probability of getting an item from those levels. And here they are:
- Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79.92%
- Mythical / Restricted (Purple) – 15.98%
- Legendary / Classified (Pink) – 3.2%
- Ancient / Covert (Red) – 0.64%
- Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold) – 0.26%
These numbers were hidden for a long time behind the illusionary magic. But then, Valve followed the Chinese government’s demands to share them — and revealed the odds.
Please note: these numbers may vary slightly, as Valve doesn’t really bother to open their cards (if they are not forced to). But the odds are relatively the same in every case; you should get the idea of your chances of obtaining Classified, Covert, and Exceedingly Rare items.
The percentages have been confirmed through practical experiments of many players/content creators opening many, many cases.
How Do CS2 Odds Work?
You press the button for opening a case, and the game randomly decides what you get. There is an almost 80% chance of getting a Mil-Spec skin — which means, you will get them most often. Having an almost 16% chance of getting a Restricted skin is not bad at all; this sure may happen. Everything else is rather a stroke of luck.
It would be certainly interesting to check out a practical usage of the CS2 odds for specific cases. Let’s take something from our list of the most expensive cases in CS2.
Operation Bravo Case
It was released quite a long time ago, and it has some pretty interestings skins.
Subjectively, Fire Serpent and Emerald Dragon are absolutely amazing. Having them in Counter-Strike matches — well, this prospect is worth a try.
But just look at the numbers and be honest with yourself. 3.2% for Classified skins and 0.64% for Covert — this is apparently a low-probability outcome. There are big chances of spending money on keys for opening this case again and again but getting Mil-Spec mainly, and Restricted in a better scenario.
The risk may pay out, as even one Covert skin should be enough to cover the expenses. But that may not happen.
The same principle of CS2 odds works for every other case. It is recommended to check out their content to decide whether you want to take the risk with this one and what you will get from the set of Mil-Spec/Restricted skins.
Which skin will drop from that Mil-Spec selection? Here we have pure randomness, with equal chances for every skin.
What Are the Odds of Getting a Knife in CS2?
The odds for getting a knife in CS2 are very (very!) low — around 0.26%. There is no way to emphasize this enough.
Someone is super lucky, so they get a knife, scream in excitement, and publish this euphoria on YouTube. Hundreds of thousands of people watch that, get inspired, and… obtain Mil-Spec skins from their case.
If this happens, the drop will give you a random CS2 knife from a pretty vast selection, which depends on the case you’ve opened.
Which CS2 Case Has the Best Odds?
CS2 case odds are pretty much universal. There is no such thing as a case with better odds — the chances are the same, whichever case you decide to open.
The only difference is the exact skins you may get. That’s why we recommend checking out the content before purchasing a case and a key for it.
Sometimes, there are clearly better (more expensive) Mil-Spec or Restricted skins in this or that Counter-Strike case. Get them! These could be the best skins for investing or just cool items to show off in your matches.
Theories of getting different odds with better chances of getting rarer skins because of which case you open or the time of day you do so — no, these are kind of urban legends.
What Are the Odds of Getting a Case Drop in CS2?
Let’s just say that the odds are very high. In fact, you have more chance of getting a case than a skin — because Valve makes direct profit from selling keys to open cases. It’s business. We discussed this topic in more detail in our article on how to get cases in CS2.
In a nutshell, there is no practical reason to buy CS2 cases, which are currently in the active drop pool. Just play the game and get them for free. And as the drop pool changes regularly, active players will collate an impressive set of cases pretty soon.
The exact odds of getting a case drop in CS2 are obscure. Valve doesn’t reveal its secret. To be honest, the percentage of this probability is so high that it becomes irrelevant. The game is pretty generous in giving away cases — no need to worry about this.
CS2 case odds are strictly mathematical, but the factor of luck is absolutely real, and it is certainly responsible for creating a magical atmosphere around opening a case.
If we stay pragmatic, there are better ways to conduct a skins trading business or get something cool for a personal collection — just buy CS2 skins on DMarket. Opening cases is always an adventure, a game within the game. Are you up for some risk (while having some extra cash to spend)? Then go for it. And good luck!
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